Are you concerned about new tax brackets and your 2019 tax planning? Last year was the transition year into the new tax brackets for many Americans. There’s a good chance you have questions, even concerns about what the new tax brackets mean for your tax bill for 2019 and beyond.
Has your Investment Advisor talked with you about the new tax law?
If so, have they talked with you about potentially moving assets into new asset class(es) to reduce your tax liability?
How are you best positioning your money to take advantage of your new tax bracket?
I get it – talking about taxes and tax brackets and moving assets, it can be stressful, confusing, and frankly, a pain in the you-know-what to talk about. The problem is a lot of financial advisors wait until their clients mention the new tax law before even sharing advice.
That doesn’t sound right. Shouldn’t it be your advisor’s job to serve you before you have to dig through a lot of confusing information?
That’s why our team here at Full Circle Financial
There’s a reason why you’re still reading this: you’re interested. You deserve to be served with a proactive, you-focused approach that gets ahead of Uncle Sam’s deadlines.
Would you like to hop on a call with me? It’s no pressure. Just a 30-minute Tax Brackets Call where we can talk about any questions and concerns you have about your taxes. Just click the link to book a time for us to chat.
Life is too short to settle for a passive advisor. You deserve better. Book a call now.
Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Cambridge and Full Circle Financial of Colorado, Inc. are not affiliated. Cambridge does not provide tax advice.
No, the sky isn’t falling; it’s simply a possible U.S. recession for 2020, maybe even 2019.
You’ve likely seen the news already: multiple media outlets are reporting the U.S. economy (and other parts of the global economy) is showing signs of a looming downturn in 2019 that may extend into early 2020.
And yet, we all know the saying when it comes to news: if it bleeds, it leads. If the stock market continued its thriving ways as the past few years indicate, there would be little to no reporting on its health. A bull market is a footnote, but a bear market is the featured headline.
There are a number of questions to consider as we look at what may be the next U.S. economic recession:
While this is not a comprehensive list, and we’re certainly not predicting a recession, there is growing concern about market volatility for the coming months and years. This article is designed to answer these questions in detail so you can have greater confidence and know what some of your options may be for growing your wealth in 2019 and beyond.
No matter if a recession occurs in 2019 or sometime in the near future, these are evidence-based principles and good common sense questions and perspectives that can help guide your investing future.
What Is A Flattening Yield Curve, and Does That Mean We’re Headed Into a Recession?
There are a number of potential markers that may be indicative of a recession in a variety of economies. A popular term among investors and financial experts over the past year is “flattening yield curve”. What does “flattening yield curve” even mean? Again, our job at Full Circle Financial of Colorado is to explain the technical terms of our industry so you can know with certainty what we mean we use specific terms.
To better understand “flattening yield curve”, we need to consider two different interest rates: short-term interest rates for bonds, and long-term interest rates for bonds. If you had two bonds with the same quality, referred to as “credit quality”, you would want to know if it’s more profitable to hold onto the bonds for a shorter period of time or a longer period of time.
If you as the investor knew you could cash in one bond sooner than the other for a more profitable return, you would probably be inclined to cash in the bond. However, if the other bond was more profitable with a long-term interest rate than the bond with the short-term interest rate, you would obviously be inclined to wait longer before cashing in the long-term bond.
The difference between those two interest rates for bonds, short-term and long-term rates, is what we call a “yield curve”. As the yield or return on investments for bonds with short-term interest rates gets closer to the yield of bonds with long-term interest, it causes the difference, the ‘curve’ as it were, to flatten in appearance. In many cases, an economic recession is often not far behind the change in bond interest rates.
When the yield for short-term bonds becomes greater than the yield for long-term bonds, it actually causes what’s called an inverted yield curve. As Simon Moore shared in a June 2018 article on Forbes, “Interestingly, the yield curve inverted in 1998, 2000 and 2005. In each case, a U.S. recession occurred within 1 to 3 years. That’s an impressive forecasting record.” (Forbes, June 2018) In Q4 2018 the two-year and 10-year yield curve inverted by roughly 10bps. The rest of the yield curve based on other durations remained positive.
Our approach at Full Circle Financial of Colorado is considering multiple pieces of evidence, not just one marker, that may indicate market activity. A flattening yield curve, and certainly an inverted yield curve, could be a reliable sign of a coming bear market, but what other signs are worth considering?
What May be Other Signs of an Economic Recession?
Flattening yield curve may be the most technical marker we’ll share that may be a sign of a coming recession. There are three other markers, among others, of a possible recession that are easier to identify and track as an investor.
“Are we heading into a recession?” “Well, my neighbor seems to think so. He’s the President of Such-and-Such Bank.”
If this conversation sounds familiar, then you’re already seeing a classic example of consumer and business sentiment influencing how investors see the market. Using our example, your friend’s neighbor who is a president of a bank is already believing an economic downturn, if not a full recession, is on its way. That belief is likely guiding many of the business decisions he is making as president of the bank, including changes to policies and practices involving interest rates, loans, and underwriting for consumers and businesses.
The idea of an economic recession being just around the corner is as contagious as a virus. A simple conversation between bank presidents can ‘sneeze’ this virus from one location to the next. When hard evidence is replaced with consumer and business sentiment is when the possibility of a recession quickly becomes our reality.
In case you haven’t heard, the U.S. and China are not playing nice when it comes to trade negotiations. The U.S. imposed trade tariffs on over $250B of Chinese products with the threat of tariffs on an additional $267B. (China Briefing, August 2018) In retaliation, China imposed tariffs on over $110B of U.S. products and the possibility of limiting U.S. businesses from operating in China.
As of mid-February, trade talks between these two global titans are tense but cautiously optimistic as recent conversations show promising results. Trade tariffs between two countries as influential as the U.S. and China create a trickle-down effect on smaller international markets. This further increases global market volatility and can slow global market growth, it means a greater likelihood the U.S. economy may experience a recession.
There are other markers that can often be signs of a looming U.S. recession: changes in unemployment rates, median income levels, and private business sales, among others. Arguably, one of the most influential numbers for economic activity is what we call the Gross Domestic Product or GDP as it’s often referred to in economic conversations.
Imagine we added up the total value of all the products, goods, and services produced in the U.S. in a given year. That would be the Gross Domestic Product. For the U.S., the GDP for 2018 Q3 was 3.4% growth rate, but the growth rate for the 2018 Q4 GDP is projected to range from 2.5-2.7%, almost a full percentage point lower than Q3. (Seeking Alpha, January 2019) Early projections for the U.S. GDP in 2019 Q1 are expecting more slowdown to the estimated mark of ~2.1%.
If a U.S. Recession Happens In 2019, How Long Is It Expected to Last?
To date, there have been 47 documented recessions in the history of the U.S. While the average span of time between recessions is approximately four years, this span continues to grow since the 1980s. The most recent U.S. recession was officially recognized as over in June 2009, even though actual economic recovery took several years to recover from the second-worst economic recession in U.S. history. The amount of time between the three most recent U.S. recessions lasted an average of almost eight years. (NAI Benchmark, Feb. 2019)
As we approach almost ten years since the last recession, it’s understandable why we’re seeing signs now of another recession. However, one sentiment that seems consistent is that if we do experience a recession in 2019 or 2020, it’s certainly not expected to be nearly as devastating as the Great Recession of 2007-2009.
The average U.S. recession tends to last around nine months in duration. The length of time for the three most recent U.S. recessions lasted an average of eleven months, but it’s worth noting the 2007-2009 recession lasted twice as long as the previous two recessions due to the significant collapse of the housing market.
How Do I Successfully Navigate the 2019 Recession as an Investor?
Again, we need to acknowledge there’s still a good possibility we’ll avoid a recession in 2019. Whether it happens in 2019, 2020, or any other time in the near future, how do you as an investor make the most of this opportunity?
It starts with having confidence in your long-term written financial plan. This can ground your perspective as an investor beyond the daily headline or the rollercoaster experiences on the stock market each month. One of the best investments you can make as an investor is spending the time to create a written financial plan.
When the U.S. experiences market volatility, it can be good to consider shorter-duration investment types, such as bonds, mortgage-based funding types, and cash-driven assets. We highly encourage you to consider your risk tolerance and talk with your investment advisor on how to find the right funding types to fit your risk tolerance and written financial plan that may be more reliable and conservative in nature.
Every investment opportunity is unique, as is your set of financial goals, so be true to yourself and what you want to accomplish long-term instead of letting market volatility sway your investment decisions. If you want a financial advisor who can help you identify a steady, focused approach towards investing, that’s where our team at Full Circle Financial of Colorado is here for you.
If you’re ready to talk, give us a call to share any concerns and questions you may have about the economy. We commit to giving a no-judgment, zero-fear approach in providing you with the best information to address your concerns. You may not be ready to talk yet, and that’s okay. If you like this article and want to learn more, just send us a message to start a conversation. No calls necessary, just a message or two so you can get to know us a bit more before taking that first step.
No matter what happens with the U.S. economy, we want to be here for you every step of the way. Thank you for taking the time to learn more from us.
Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Cambridge and Full Circle Financial of Colorado, Inc. are not affiliated. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not assure profit or protect against loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. Depending on the types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk. Investors should be prepared to bear loss, including total loss of principal.
Retirement: it’s the American dream.
This is why we plan our escape from the rat-racing, corporate ladder-climbing, 9-to-5-ing of our jobs. We want to see the endless meetings, difficult clients, and the tyranny of the urgent fade in the rearview mirrors. We want the freedom to enjoy our weekends without the ‘ding’ of another office email.
We want to know that the life we dream of is just beyond our final workday. For many of us, we want to retire from something, but what are you retiring toward?
What’s on the other side of your retirement party?
Between your early 20s to early 60s, you probably spend between eight to 12 hours a day working. Once you retire, where do you want to spend your now-free time? More importantly, how do you know you’ll be financially successful to the point where you can enjoy your newfound freedom?
Maybe you want to spend more time with your family and close friends. Maybe you want to finally take that trip, wining and dining your way through the Tuscany hillsides. Maybe you have a passion for making a difference in your community.
Those dreams of lifestyle freedom also require financial means. How do some of the most vibrant, influential, and fulfilled people in your life and community get to do what ‘they’ do? By leaning into what we call the 5 Lifestyle Habits of Financially Successful People. These five lifestyle-defining, paradigm-shifting habits are simple, timeless principles designed to give you the confidence and momentum you need to support the lifestyle you desire.
Retiring toward traveling the world, spending time with your loved ones, and making a difference starts with these five habits. This is what transforms the ambitious among us into the financially successful…
Secret 1: Financially successful people set goals.
You probably already set goals in at least one area of your life: work. Either you set the goals (well done, go-getter!) or the goals are set for you by your manager. Whether you’re an avid goal setter or more of a free spirit, there’s no denying the impact goal-setting has on finances. The most financially savvy people set goals for different areas of their life, including their money.
Simply setting a goal though isn’t a guarantee of financial success. Of course, you probably expected that we can’t share any guarantee, so what type of goals seems to work the best for reaching financial success? S.M.A.R.T. goals.
S.M.A.R.T. goals are defined as:
For many investors, setting goals for this month, this season, and this year is a great place to start. Writing down your goals can give you clarity and a common reference point as you work to reach that goal. Once you begin reaching your goals, you’ll be excited to set the next level of your goals.
Secret 2: Financially successful people budget and track their expenses.
How much money do you spend each month? Do you have a budget or a current reliable, written plan for tracking and managing your expenses? If you do have a written budget, how confident are you in the effectiveness of your budget?
A recent Gallup study found approximately 32% of Americans maintain a household budget. (Debt.com, July 2018) MarketWatch also reported that approximately half of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. (MarketWatch, April 2017) No household budget with little room for financial mishaps, it’s no wonder why so many Americans are failing to reach their financial goals.
Financially successful people have a written budget that they track and adhere to on a consistent basis. We know what it’s like to have a budget you don’t respect. It takes discipline to stick to your budget, just like starting a new exercise regimen. The first day or two may be exciting, but it takes guts to get back in the gym, or in this case into your budget system, and honestly track your progress.
No matter your current income level, having a written budget you respect can be one of your best investments. A written budget can be incredibly insightful for knowing if your spending patterns match what you want your lifestyle to be in retirement.
Creating a written budget starts by looking at your wants versus needs. The more detailed you can be, the more accurate your budget. What does each trip to the grocery store cost? What’s a reasonable amount to spend on your entertainment? How much do you need to allocate to keep your wardrobe fresh but not extravagant?
Once you assign a budget for your each of your needs, then you’re ready to add in what you want and desire. Your favorite bottle of vintage scotch probably doesn’t classify as a need, so figure out what you need first before adding in what you want. Many investors who create a written budget often find they can live on much less than they earn.
Here are some of the tools we love for budgeting and tracking your expenses:
Secret 3: Financially successful people work with experts.
You’re likely an expert in at least one area, which is why you have the job you do. Whether you’re a tradesperson, a business leader, sales manager, account personnel, or an entrepreneur, people look to you as an expert in your field. You know what’s necessary to get the job done and thrill your boss or clients.
People who retire with the greatest accumulation of wealth typically rely on experts to help them make the best possible choices with their money. Leveraging the expertise of others can sometimes come with a serving of humble pie: we often don’t know what we don’t know. When new clients connect with our team at Full Circle Financial, we often ask a variety of questions to get to know them. What’s the big picture they need to see? What are the numbers they’re concerned about? What’s keeping them up at night?
Retirement isn’t about hitting a magical number; it’s about knowing how to use what you have the best way possible to fulfill your dreams. A financial expert who you can trust can help you establish a personalized financial plan, and then, they can help you stick to your plan.
This includes finding investments that are in your best interest. We call that being a true fiduciary: your financial advisor must have your best interests in mind with any investment or product they recommend to you. That’s been our approach with Full Circle Financial of Colorado from Day One, and we are unapologetically obsessed with giving you the best options we can to fuel your financial growth. It’s because we believe the right expert in any field needs to be invested in, believe in, and share your dream.
Being your fiduciary means we try to ‘put ourselves in your shoes’: if this were our account, what are the best options to consider? We talk through tough questions with our clients, such as:
Lastly, an expert can help keep you accountable. This is why accountability partners are so widely used in the weight loss industry. You have a much higher chance of success if you share your vision with someone else and create a relationship where you report back on your progress.
Financially successful people partner with people who want to see them win.
Download your copy of the “Financial Habits Action Plan” to see how your current financial habits measure against the five lifestyle habits of financially successful people…and then start adopting those same habits.
Hit the link below to access the “Financial Habits Action Plan”. It normally takes about 15-30 minutes to complete.
Learn More about the Financial Habits Action Plan
Secret 4: Financially successful people have a healthy community of trustworthy loved ones and friends.
Harvard’s Grant & Glueck study tracked the physical and emotional well-being of 268 male graduates from Harvard, as well as 456 poor men growing up in Boston from 1939 to 2014. (Harvard Second Generation Study, 2017) Multiple generations of researchers analyzed brain scans, blood samples, self-reported surveys and interactions of these men to compile their findings.
According to Robert Waldinger, Harvard professor of psychology and director of the center behind the study, the conclusions are simple. Close relationships can make or break a person’s well-being. “The clearest message that we get from this 75-year study is this: Good relationships keep us happier and healthier. Period,” Waldinger says in his 2015 TEDx Talk. (TED, 2015)
This simple, yet profound truth is often missing for our everyday interactions. Who are the people you know, like, and trust who are adding a positive impact on your everyday life? These are the voices speaking into your life when you’re establishing a budget, preparing for a major purchase, changing jobs, moving to a new home, planning for college, or preparing for retirement or any other significant event
Financially successful people have someone they can turn to for feedback, pushback, or affirmation. Playing the ‘lone wolf’ is a dangerous approach to your finances. The people who know you the best also know your values and habits. Remember, people leave patterns, including yourself. Getting trustworthy insight from those closest to you can be a great investment for your financial future.
Secret 5: Financially successful people take the first step, and then, the next step.
We all face the trials of daily life: cars break, roofs leak, kids eat mass quantities of groceries, and markets move. Financially successful people take the first step regardless of any chaos that may be surrounding them, and then, they take the next step. Financial success doesn’t happen overnight. It’s a continual journey that involves adjusting and course-correcting throughout your life, based on your circumstances.
You’re not the same person you were in college nor as a new parent or the ‘greenhorn’ at your first company. We change over the years, which is why your financial planning needs to accommodate and adjust for the season of life you’re in as well as the seasons ahead of you. As you mature, so should your financial plan. The investment types are often different. The financial goals may also change. Making $150,000 in your 40s or 50s opens up far more doors of investment opportunity than the $50,000 you made in your 20s or early 30s.
Planning for retirement is not about the final big number you need to have in the bank to live off of. Wealth will never give you true happiness or peace. What will feed your fulfillment is creating the life you dream of by taking great steps along the way. We want to give you confidence, inspiration, and help you find the willingness to stand firm in your values and goals.
As a team who is intimately involved in people’s financial lives, we find it so rewarding when our clients reach their financial goals. It means they can pay for their child to attend that prestigious college, make their final house payment, buy a new car on their terms, travel to where they’ve always wanted to go, or simply give us that all-knowing look that we’ve worked together to create an incredible financial future they can enjoy.
Our experience has shown us over and over again there are many who can show you the roadmap, but they are few who are ready to jump in the car with you.
It is possible for you to be financially successful, whatever that looks like to you. Our team at Full Circle Financial of Colorado would love to learn more about your goals and vision. Maybe you received some investment advice that you’re not sure about. Maybe you have some goals that you’re not sure how to reach.
Download your copy of the “Financial Habits Action Plan” to see how your current financial habits measure against the five lifestyle habits of financially successful people…and then start adopting those same habits.
Hit the link below to access the “Financial Habits Action Plan”. It normally takes about 15-30 minutes to complete.
Learn More about the Financial Habits Action Plan
What’s Your Next Step?
If you want a financial advisor who’s been where you are and who will fight for your financial future, we would love to connect with you. Our Full Circle Financial team is ready to have a ‘zero-fear, no strings attached’ phone call with you to see if we may be a good fit.
You may not be ready to talk yet, and that’s okay. If you like this article and want to learn more, just send us a message to start a conversation. No calls necessary, just a message or two so you can get to know us a bit more before taking that first step.
You have a choice for who you let speak into your finances. Whenever you’re ready, we want to be the right choice for you.
Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Cambridge and Full Circle Financial of Colorado, Inc. are not affiliated.
“Does your financial advisor have your best interests in mind?”
The answer may seem obvious: why wouldn’t your financial advisor have your best interests in mind? Would you have hired them if they didn’t have your back in every investment decision? Unfortunately, many professionals who position themselves as wealth management ‘experts’, even some who carry official designations of a financial advisor, are not operating in their clients’ best interests.
Your financial future is too important not to have unbiased advice affecting your investment decisions. A term we often talk about at Full Circle Financial of Colorado is being a true fiduciary. A fiduciary is defined as “involving trust, especially with regard to the relationship between a trustee and a beneficiary.” (Oxford English Dictionary, July 2018)
As fiduciaries in the wealth management space, we value the trust our clients place in us to give them unbiased advice when it comes to investment opportunities. This is a trust we cannot put a price tag on, which is why we take every step possible to maintain our fiduciary commitment.
We work to build your trust from our first interaction. We want to make sure we’re a good fit, and we’ll be honest with you if we believe another firm may be a better fit for you. We also focus on acting as if our own money is at stake: if this were our portfolio, how would we want to be treated?
The Truth Behind Many Financial Advisors’ Recommendations
Other advisors in our space are choosing not to have that same commitment. Our team has heard story after story from new clients sharing about their previous experience with financial ‘experts’. One consistent story we hear is their previous financial advisor or insurance agent sold them into an investment that ended up generating little to no return.
After more questioning, we learn their advisor sold the investment because a higher compensation was attached that benefited the advisor. The investment type was not a good fit for the client’s financial goals, and in many cases, the investment product itself was not a quality product from the beginning.
Working through an independent broker/dealer is potentially a great value to you as the client. If a broker/dealer is independent, they have virtually zero bias regarding what investments are in your portfolio. They have the same fiduciary standards as your investment advisor. On the other, if the broker/dealer is also a market maker (simply stated, someone who owns securities), you may get the same type of advice, but it’s not clear if the advice the broker/dealer is giving you is in your best interest.
Here’s a simple example: you sell a security via your investment advisor and their Independent Broker/Dealer. You can know you received the best price at the time that the market allowed. If that same transaction occurs with a market maker Broker/Dealer, you get the price offered by the Broker/Dealer but it may not be the best price in the market at the time. The price may be close to the market’s best, but it’s not guaranteed.
Sadly, this is a common story affecting investors across the U.S. and beyond. This may be the primary reason why the U.S. Department of Labor instituted the Fiduciary Duty Rule based on the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) and the Internal Revenue Code. (U.S. Department of Labor, July 2018) The Fiduciary Duty Rule essentially raised the bar of expectations for all professionals who work with financial investment plans or provide investment planning advice. In short, any financial professionals who met those conditions were automatically assigned the legal and ethical responsibility of being a ‘fiduciary’. (Obama White House Archives, February 2015)
The Fiduciary Duty Rule held any financial professional operating as an advisor to investors to a legal and ethical duty. This standard requires the professional to disclose relevant fees and commissions for any investment opportunity they recommend. The Fiduciary Duty Rule was designed to bring more transparency for the greater benefit of the investor. This ruling was a game-changer as preliminary projections showed financial service companies were poised to lose as much as $17 billion per year at the hands of fiduciary accountability. (Obama White House Archives, February 2015)
Unfortunately, the Fiduciary Duty Rule was ultimately vacated by the U.S. Fifth Court of Appeals with the official ruling in June 2018. (Investment News, June 2018) This is again opening up loopholes and zero accountability for many so-called financial ‘experts’ to recommend different investment types and opportunities with little to no benefit to the investor.
While the Fiduciary Duty Rule is no longer a looming requirement, our team at Full Circle Financial of Colorado believe in the value and calling of operating as a fiduciary. This was a principle we championed from our beginning, and it will continue to be an expectation we hold for all our team members.
As our lead investment advisor Mike Freemire shares, simply having a license to serve as a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) requires our team members to act in our clients’ best interests, always and without fail. This is a foundational belief we hold to at Full Circle Financial of Colorado, and it starts with being more than just a fiduciary.
Our Concierge-Style Approach to Serving Our Clients
Think about the top hotels, resorts, even spas: they all have a concierge experience. From the moment your reservation is made, your concierge is attempting to predict your next set of needs.
If you’re staying at a resort, the concierge may ask you what food types you prefer, your favorite bottle of wine, or a memorable experience you want to make during your stay. A great concierge will then obsess over delivering on those wishes before you even realize their work is underway.
When it comes to creating the concierge-style experience for our clients, we try to think ahead of our clients’ needs:
Creating content that proactively answers client questions allows us to serve our prospective and current clients around the clock.
Taking a concierge-style approach to our service means we are more selective with who we want to serve. It means a higher value of interaction that’s personalized because we don’t believe in ‘one-size-fits-all’ financial advice. Our team will care for you more than anyone else who doesn’t share your last name.
What’s Your Next Step?
If you want a financial advisor who’s been where you are and who will fight for your financial future, we would love to connect with you. Our Full Circle Financial team is ready to have a ‘zero-fear, no strings attached’ phone call with you to see if we may be a good fit.
You may not be ready to talk yet, and that’s okay. If you like this article and want to learn more, just send us a message to start a conversation. No calls necessary, just a message or two so you can get to know us a bit more before taking that first step.
You have a choice for who you let speak into your finances. Whenever you’re ready, we want to be the right choice for you.
Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser. Cambridge and Full Circle Financial of Colorado, Inc. are not affiliated.